Epidemic Model Revision & Update

It’s been 14 days since CMCO (Conditional Movement Control Order) started, which relaxed the strict rules of MCO somewhat. It is a good time for us to recalibrate our model and fine tune it now we have more data. The first big revision is our full adoption of ventilated patient data into our UI estimate, […]

Epidemic Model Update

We have been worried for awhile about the foreign worker issue. They are youthful, slim, with high vitamin D exposure – all factors which have shown to be correlated with high Covid-19 survivability. Singapore’s massive foreign worker positive cases have, in the words of infectious disease specialists, “diluted” the mortality rate of Singapore’s SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. […]

Epidemic Model Update

We are now below 400 in our estimate of the UI population. It does look like it is trending downwards. If as expected MCO is to be relaxed on 12 May, we will know by 17-19 May in our estimates whether the SARS-CoV-2 infectivity has increased significantly, above the important R0 of 1.

Epidemic Model Update

Slight uptick today. If 145 construction workers test positive and are not found, we wonder how MOH reports the numbers. Normally, detected positives get deducted from our model estimates of undetected infectious (UI’s) – in this case, if they fled after taking positive, the opposite has to happen. We will scan reports tomorrow. As always […]

Epidemic Model Update

More good news today. What is heartening is that foreign worker contact tracing and testing is increasing in order to reduce further community contagion. Foreign workers present a unique challenge as their mortality rate is low, and paradoxically, that means infectivity is much higher. Getting to grips with the contagion in that population before it […]

Epidemic Model Update

We estimate there are 577 undetected infectious (UI), which is an increase of 77 from the day before. This is worrying, as the country is going into what is termed a “Conditional MCO” tomorrow with some relaxation in rules. Many states are however choosing not to follow this federal advisory. We will see if the […]

Epidemic Model Update

We streamline and present the number most people just want to see, all in one graphic. Full model available to be perused here. We will be stripping out imported cases from our model. With border closures, this is as close to a closed model as Malaysia can get, so we should do our best to […]

Epidemic Model Update (Special Edition)

And just like that the MCO is gone, pfffww. We got an early release from the MCO – this coming Monday, May 4th 2020. It’s conditional of course. Lots of businesses that deal with crowds or close intimate contact (ahem) remain barred from opening, such as conference venues, reflexology centres or karaoke joints. Mask wearing, […]