Epidemic Model Update

In the world of statistics, momentous days sometimes come without announcing themselves. Not for us, we will let you know when it happens. Today we start saying with clarity whether an MCO can end tomorrow. And we do that by introducing a new data point: detections within the last 14 days. Check it out at […]

Epidemic Model Update

No deaths, so good news. Big spike in new infected today but most are returnees from Indonesia. Border controls must be the LAST to go after the MCO is lifted. Today being phase 4 of the MCO, some relaxation is being down in this phase. Pairs are allowed now in cars and grocery stores. We […]

Epidemic Model Update

It really looks like we have turned a corner. We have had 5 straight days of reductions in the population of undetected infected in our model. Our only concern is that recent outbreaks in Selayang and other areas may not show their severity until 14 days ago when mortality cases will show themselves. Yesterday we […]

Epidemic Model Update

One death today, but the momentum in increased testing 14 days ago is being felt, so undetected infected numbers are still falling. We would like to share that in addition to the infected numbers, we also monitor two metrics which tell us whether our model is accurate, and getting more accurate or less. One is […]

Epidemic Model Update

Zero deaths. It might bear repeating why this is so important for our model. We don’t rely on extrapolations of positive cases to estimate our infected population, we rely on mortality statistics. A few reasons, but mostly because of the high and currently uncertain proportion of asymptomatic cases of Covid, the positive cases detected everyday […]

Epidemic Model Update

Despite registering 2 deaths today, our model still shows an overall reduction in the undetected infected population, as stepped up testing was detecting more and more positive cases 14 days ago. Hence, a net reduction of 60 to 1,570 undetected uninfected out there 14 days ago, with 16 of these estimated to be violating MCO. […]

Epidemic Model Update

One area of concern today: 3 consecutive days of increases in new detection. As the government ramps up testing of foreign workers, will we see a similar situation as in Singapore? Have also been receiving WhatsApps warning about our illegal foreign worker population, which is untracked. That being said, with only one mortality, our model’s […]

Epidemic Model Update

7 Covid-19 positive cases were found today out of 3,408 tested using community tracing efforts by the Selangor state government. This confirms there is a sizeable number of undetected cases out there as shown by our model. Unfortunately progress is crawling and it may mean reduced movement will be a norm for a long time […]