Epidemic Model Update (Special Edition)

And just like that the MCO is gone, pfffww.

We got an early release from the MCO – this coming Monday, May 4th 2020.

It’s conditional of course. Lots of businesses that deal with crowds or close intimate contact (ahem) remain barred from opening, such as conference venues, reflexology centres or karaoke joints. Mask wearing, sanitising and social distancing are the new norms.

So to commemorate this, we release a special update: we have a lot more data now so we can do some backwards-forwards extrapolation, and we arrived at a figure we think is pretty close to the number of UI’s out there (undetected infected).

The number is eerily round. It’s actually a straightforward mean of our low and high estimates.

We’ll update this estimate depending on popular demand. It seems more in your face and what people want to hear from any model, anyway.

So, can 400 UI’s out there wreak havoc on our society once again with a relaxed MCO in place come Monday? We shall see….. In the mean time, here are our findings.