Epidemic Model Update

We streamline and present the number most people just want to see, all in one graphic. Full model available to be perused here.

We will be stripping out imported cases from our model. With border closures, this is as close to a closed model as Malaysia can get, so we should do our best to sanitise our results.

Hence, our new estimate of 510 UI’s out there. There may be more changes on the horizon for our model too as the mortality rate seems to be stabilising and we adjust that key, integral part of our model. As expected, adjusting downwards the mortality rate pushes up the infectivity of the virus, which is Epidemiology 101. Our estimated UI population might increase again.