Good news today. A combination of reduced new infections and increased new detections means there was a drop in the “undetected infected” number 14 days ago. We can assume also that out of that, only 19 of them were violating the MCO, due to stricter enforcement.

Is it enough to end the MCO on April 28? We’ve run a small simulation. If we maintain one death a day from now until April 28, that would mean there were still 1,113 unknown infected out there on April 14, which is 5 days ago. Remember – we are assuming ZERO asymptomatic recovery during this period (based on insufficient data, some people have taken 30 days to recover and stop shedding Covid-19 viruses!).

If we improve to 0 deaths from now until April 28, then situation improves to only 490 undetected infected out there.

Is it enough for you?

As always our model is available to view here.