Epidemic Model Update

We estimate there are 577 undetected infectious (UI), which is an increase of 77 from the day before. This is worrying, as the country is going into what is termed a “Conditional MCO” tomorrow with some relaxation in rules. Many states are however choosing not to follow this federal advisory. We will see if the new social norms are enough to keep the UI population at bay. You can view our model here.

Some interesting details:
Our peak UI was on 22 March 2020, 5 days into the MCO, with 2,282 UI’s. Bringing it down to 577 today, took 61 days and RM161 billion in lost economic output (according to the Prime Minister, RM2.4b a day).

This is one formidable virus.