Some relative good news today. If this continues, we truly did pass the peak (or rather the plateau) on the first week of April.

Some update notes:

1. We updated our model mortality rate to 1.61% based on updated data from our target countries.

2. We are making efforts to incorporate the underlying age of the population in our mortality model, although we think this is a second order variable compared to the timing of restricted social movements.

3. We are heartened to hear from Director-General Dr Noor Hisham that 88% of patients warded are asymptomatic and that Malaysia differs from other countries by keeping them in hospital. This proves our capacity is not overrun and we are minimising contact/contagion.

4. As of today Malaysia’s mortality rate (1.63%) closely matches the model mortality rate of 1.61%. If our model is correct, our current undetected rate of 50.8% will come down as detected cases match the total infected population (as undetected carriers recover undetected or are admitted to hospital).

Model accessible here: