Epidemic Model Update

All around good news today. No deaths! We have not had a day of zero deaths since 19th March 2020, which was almost exactly one month ago.

This has led to significant falls in our “undetected infected” number.

As mentioned yesterday, if we keep this up, it would still mean there were 490 undetected infected out there on April 14. Under our model conditions, only 14 days of zero deaths would mean we are “clear”.

We are also now exploring the correlation between mortality and viral loads, since there is a persistent theory that higher viral loads lead to higher numbers of deaths.