Epidemic Model Update

Zero deaths. It might bear repeating why this is so important for our model. We don’t rely on extrapolations of positive cases to estimate our infected population, we rely on mortality statistics. A few reasons, but mostly because of the high and currently uncertain proportion of asymptomatic cases of Covid, the positive cases detected everyday are not as predictive of the number of infected persons, as they depend on testing capacity, clusters being detected and infected persons voluntarily coming forward, all of which may not happen.

With zero deaths today, our model shows the largest decline in the overall undetected infected population since we started – 1,417. We are now back at levels seen in the week before the MCO started – this is progress.