Epidemic Model Update

It really looks like we have turned a corner. We have had 5 straight days of reductions in the population of undetected infected in our model. Our only concern is that recent outbreaks in Selayang and other areas may not show their severity until 14 days ago when mortality cases will show themselves.

Yesterday we noted another metric we monitor – the undetected infected population out of the total infected. We have to clarify that this is NOT the asymptomatic rate although it probably is close to it – this is the undetected rate. It does not include the asymptomatic cases which HAVE been detected by the MOH, usually through contact tracing of known infected persons.

Logically, this rate should trend towards ZERO as the total detected eventually merge with the total number of infected and there are no more undetected. Only the MOH would have better statistics on the “snapshot” picture of asymptomatic/presymptomatic cases out of total infected at any given time, since it is an evolving situation with presymptomatic patients becoming symptomatic and asymptomatic patients recovering on their own.

We maintain our call for 14 days without deaths as a primary criteria for a relaxation of the MCO. The cost of a further MCO will be too great for our economy to bear. As always our model can be viewed here.