Epidemic Model Update

7 Covid-19 positive cases were found today out of 3,408 tested using community tracing efforts by the Selangor state government. This confirms there is a sizeable number of undetected cases out there as shown by our model. Unfortunately progress is crawling and it may mean reduced movement will be a norm for a long time […]

Epidemic Model Update

Three new deaths. What is really frustrating is they seem to be being infected well over 2 weeks after the start of MCO. Sad to say, that is confirmed with our model – our model “predicts” there were 1,763 infected still undetected two weeks ago. Well within the likelihood of some ending up dying. Bad […]

Epidemic Model Update

All around good news today. No deaths! We have not had a day of zero deaths since 19th March 2020, which was almost exactly one month ago. This has led to significant falls in our “undetected infected” number. As mentioned yesterday, if we keep this up, it would still mean there were 490 undetected infected […]

Epidemic Model Update

Good news today. A combination of reduced new infections and increased new detections means there was a drop in the “undetected infected” number 14 days ago. We can assume also that out of that, only 19 of them were violating the MCO, due to stricter enforcement. Is it enough to end the MCO on April […]

Epidemic Model Update

Some mixed news today. A combination of 2 new deaths but increased detection mean the overall unknown infected population went down 14 days ago, but the total went up. Model accessible here. Remember: this is a “postdiction” – a prediction of what was happening 14 days ago, with model results from data today and 14 […]

Epidemic Model Update

Some relative good news today. If this continues, we truly did pass the peak (or rather the plateau) on the first week of April. Some update notes: 1. We updated our model mortality rate to 1.61% based on updated data from our target countries. 2. We are making efforts to incorporate the underlying age of […]